Fuel Crisis Hits Home: GasBuddy forecasts most expensive summer at the pump in years amid Strait of Hormuz closure

INDIANA — American road trip culture is facing its toughest test in years. Despite a massive surge in fuel prices driven by major geopolitical disruptions, a resilient majority of Americans still plan to hit the highway this summer—though they are radically altering their spending habits to do so.

According to the 2026 Summer Travel Survey and Forecast released today by fuel savings platform GasBuddy, the national average for regular unleaded gasoline is projected to reach $4.48 per gallon on Memorial Day. This represents a staggering $1.48 increase from the $3.14 per gallon average recorded during the same holiday weekend last year.

GasBuddy experts warn that prices will likely average $4.80 per gallon throughout the summer (Memorial Day through Labor Day). Furthermore, if the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane remains closed for a significant portion of the season, prices could easily breach the $5.00 mark and set new records.

Geopolitical Strains Drive Pain at the Pump

The primary catalyst for this year’s volatile energy market is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely choked global oil inventories and disrupted international supply chains. Additional upward pressure from refinery dynamics, OPEC production caps, and the fast-approaching Atlantic hurricane season have created a perfect storm for energy inflation.

Even under the best-case scenarios, relief will not arrive overnight.

Patrick de Haan

“This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years, and the Strait of Hormuz closure is at the center of it,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they’re going this summer, and even after the Strait reopens, it could take a year or more for gas prices to fully recover.”

De Haan noted that while some state governments are proactively suspending local gas taxes to ease the burden on drivers, federal discussions are still underway to find broader solutions.

The Changing Landscape of the American Road Trip

The financial strain is visibly shifting consumer behavior. GasBuddy’s survey data highlights a meaningful decline in total travel volume paired with heightened price sensitivity:

  • Fewer Drivers: 56% of Americans still plan to take a road trip of two hours or more this summer. While still a majority, this is a sharp drop from the 69% who planned to do so last year.
  • Cost is King: 53% of respondents named overall cost as their top travel consideration, with 67% admitting that gas prices are directly dictating their itinerary.
  • Abbreviated Plans: 36% of drivers state that rising fuel costs are causing them to take fewer trips overall.

For those still packing up their vehicles, the journeys remain substantial: 38% of summer travelers expect to drive more than five hours to reach their final destinations, with most planning multiple trips over the summer months.

Travelers Lean Heavily on Savings Tools

To combat the high costs, drivers are transforming how and where they purchase fuel, relying heavily on digital tools and loyalty programs to shave cents off the total bill.

Driver Trend / BehaviorSurvey Percentage
Plan to use the GasBuddy app to locate the cheapest fuel83%
Willing to drive 2–3 miles out of their way to save at the pumpMajority
Cite “cents off per gallon” as the primary driver for station loyalty90%

Summer Outlook: A Long Road to Recovery

The underlying data suggests that sub-$3.00 gasoline is unlikely to return to the United States for many months—and potentially not until 2027. Drivers are urged to hunt for the best local prices and utilize fuel reward memberships to mitigate costs.

Methodology Note: GasBuddy’s 2026 Summer Travel Survey was conducted between May 15–18, 2026, sampling a random selection of active GasBuddy users nationwide.