INDIANA – American consumers are gearing up to open their wallets wider this holiday season, but retailers expecting a boom in merchandise sales may need to recalibrate their strategies.
According to a new report from commercial real estate firm JLL, shoppers expect to spend an average of $1,243 on the holidays this year—a 9.7% increase from last year that nearly restores budgets to levels seen two years ago. The rebound follows a subdued 2025 holiday season during which cost-conscious consumers actively trimmed their spending.
However, the primary driver behind this spending growth isn’t a surge in gift purchases. Instead, households are directing their expanded budgets toward festive experiences, gatherings, and celebrations.
“Budgets are back, but the extra money is going to the celebration, not the presents,” JLL noted in its report.
Shift Away From Merchandise
The survey reveals a stark divergence in where holiday dollars are allocated:
- Food & Decorations: Consumers plan to increase spending on food and holiday decor by 16%.
- Dining & Entertainment: Outlays for dining out and entertainment are projected to jump by 17.3%.
- Traditional Gifts: By comparison, gift spending is expected to rise by a modest 3.1%.
As a result, physical and digital gifts now account for just 48.1% of total holiday budgets—down slightly from last year—marking a shift toward experiential holiday spending.
Enclosed Malls See a Resurgence
In-person shopping venues are witnessing a notable shift in consumer interest. Enclosed malls stood out as the only shopping channel to gain popularity in JLL’s survey, with 55.3% of respondents planning to visit one this season, up from 49.9% last year.
Conversely, online delivery—while still the dominant channel—saw its popularity slide from 83.9% last year to 80%. Store pick-up formats also registered declines.
For brick-and-mortar operators, mall visitors represent high-value targets:
- Higher Budgets: Mall shoppers carry an average holiday budget of $1,357, compared to $1,101 for average consumers.
- Longer Visits: They plan to spend an average of 67 minutes per visit, compared to 48 minutes for other shoppers.
- Broader Footprint: Mall visitors expect to stop at about six different stores per trip.
Food and Beverages Fuel High Spenders
Refueling during shopping trips has emerged as a key indicator of higher overall spending. JLL found that consumers who regularly purchase food or drinks while out shopping consistently maintain significantly larger holiday budgets.
Only 13% of survey respondents said they will skip purchasing food or beverages altogether while shopping. Meanwhile, 20.8% plan to buy refreshments on every single trip—up sharply from 12.2% last year—and another 21.4% expect to do so frequently.
The budget gap between these groups is substantial:
- Every-Trip Buyers: Average holiday budget of $1,909.
- Non-Buyers: Average holiday budget of $686.
Among refreshment choices, beverages lead the way with 57.1% of consumers planning a purchase (up six percentage points from last year), followed by snacks at 43.1%, fast food at 41.7%, and full-service dining at 14.8%.
AI Integration and Price Sensitivity
Technology and cost concerns are both shaping consumer routines this year. Six out of 10 shoppers plan to integrate artificial intelligence tools into their holiday shopping process, using it for research, deal-finding, and product recommendations.
Despite higher total budgets, price sensitivity remains widespread. JLL reported that 71.6% of shoppers expect rising prices to impact their holiday spending, including 38.5% who strongly agree.
However, shoppers are scaling back on traditional cost-saving measures compared to last year:
- Searching for Sales: 53.7% plan to look for more sales, down from 60.6% last year.
- Deal Days: 41.4% plan to focus on major deal events, down from last year’s levels.
The Danger of Shorter Gift Lists
The most critical behavioral shift for retailers is how consumers plan to control gift spending. Rather than buying cheaper items for everyone, 28.9% of shoppers plan to trim the number of people on their gift lists—up from 24.9% last year.
JLL warns that list-trimming poses a greater risk to merchants than budget-downgrading. While buying a cheaper gift results in a smaller transaction, dropping a recipient entirely eliminates the sale altogether.
To counter this trend, JLL recommends retailers make it easier for shoppers to keep recipients on their lists by introducing value-oriented gift bundles, clearly labeled $25 and $50 price-point displays, and prominently featured gift cards.
Overall, while the 2026 holiday season points to a welcome rebound in total consumer outlays, the growth will be distributed differently. Retailers that combine merchandise with dining options, engaging mall experiences, and accessible gift pricing are best positioned to capture consumer dollars this year.
