NATIONWIDE — For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, American drivers may soon see a yearly national average gas price that starts with a “2.”
GasBuddy®, the leading fuel savings platform, released its 2026 Fuel Price Outlook today, forecasting a yearly U.S. average of $2.97 per gallon. If realized, this would mark the lowest yearly average since 2020 and the fourth consecutive year of declining prices at the pump.
A Steady Path to Relief
The projected $2.97 average represents a 13-cent drop from 2025’s average of $3.10. Analysts attribute this downward trend to a cooling global economy, increased refining capacity, and a recovery from the supply shocks caused by the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts.
“The world has spent years recovering from the economic whiplash of the pandemic… but the situation has been improving quietly since 2022,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “It’s not a return to ultra-cheap fuel, but for the first time in a long time, the wind is clearly behind drivers’ backs.”
GasBuddy’s report details several key milestones for the coming year:
- Total Savings: U.S. motorists are expected to spend $11 billion less on gasoline in 2026 compared to 2025.
- Household Impact: The average household fuel spend is projected at $2,083.
- Diesel Outlook: Diesel is also expected to ease, averaging $3.55 per gallon, down from $3.62 last year.
- Year-End Lows: While spring could see a peak in the low $3.20s due to refinery maintenance, December is forecast to hit a low of $2.83.
Regional Variations and Potential Risks
While the national trend is positive, the “Great Divide” in fuel costs remains. The Gulf Coast and Southern states are expected to see the most significant relief, with prices staying well under $3. Meanwhile, California, the Northeast, and Chicago will likely remain the most expensive regions, though they are expected to stay below the record highs seen in 2022.
Forecasted 2026 Fuel Prices
| Fuel Type | 2026 Projected Avg | 2025 Actual Avg | Change |
| Regular Gasoline | $2.97 | $3.10 | -13¢ |
| Diesel Fuel | $3.55 | $3.62 | -07¢ |
Despite the optimistic forecast, GasBuddy warns that “familiar bouts of volatility” remain a threat. Seasonal demand spikes, hurricane season disruptions, and ongoing geopolitical risks—particularly current tensions in South America and the Middle East—could cause temporary price surges.
