NORMAN, OK — For decades, meteorologists and emergency managers have relied on the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to quantify severe weather threats. This morning, as a relatively quiet weather pattern settles over the Midwest, the agency is finalizing a historic shift in how it communicates tornado risks to the public.
Starting March 3, 2026, the SPC will officially implement Conditional Intensity (CI) levels into its Convective Outlooks. This update represents the most significant change to the agency’s mapping system in years, moving beyond simple probabilities to explicitly highlight the potential for violent, long-track tornadoes.
Shifting from “Likelihood” to “Intensity”
Historically, SPC maps have focused on the probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a point. While effective, this system occasionally struggled to differentiate between a day with many weak, short-lived storms and a day with a single, devastatingly violent tornado.
The new “Hatched” System: The updated maps will utilize a tiered shading (hatching) system to convey the Conditional Intensity Groups (CIG):
- CIG 1 (Single Hatch): Potential for strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3).
- CIG 2 (Double Hatch): Potential for violent tornadoes (EF4-EF5).
- CIG 3 (Triple Hatch): Extreme setups where high-end, long-track violent tornadoes are expected.
High-end severe weather like violent tornadoes causes by far the greatest loss of life, said Evan Bentley, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the SPC. The new systems will allow meteorolgists to highlight days when these specific threats are more likely, even if the overall coverage probability is low.
Looking Back: The February 19 Outbreak
The necessity for precise intensity communication was underscored just last week during the February 19, 2026, tornado outbreak. A rare winter setup brought unseasonably moist air into the Ohio Valley, resulting in an EF2 tornado that tore through the west side of Bloomington, Indiana.
The Bloomington tornado tracked for nearly four miles, damaging the Monroe County Airport, local businesses, and an animal shelter. Simultaneously, an EF1 tornado in Crawford County, Illinois, destroyed a home and injured one person. Total confirmed tornadoes for February 2026 currently stand at 43, a figure slightly above the national average.
Current Forecast: February 25, 2026
For residents currently monitoring today’s maps, the outlook is significantly calmer. A frontal system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Southeast toward the end of the week, but the SPC does not currently forecast a significant tornado threat for the next 48 hours.
While these new intensity maps provide better context for “worst-case” scenarios, officials remind the public that any tornado, regardless of its intensity rating, is dangerous. Always have multiple ways to receive warnings, such as a weather radio and local emergency apps.
