By Justin Sokeland
WBIW.com
BEDFORD – Comparing scores between similar opponents is not the best way to predict a future outcome. But if that’s the case, if past common denominators offer insight to a winning numerator, Bedford North Lawrence needs to be a little concerned about the fractional math.
The Stars have lost their first two Hoosier Hills Conference contests. Seymour has won two league games, against the same two that conquered BNL. What does two plus two equal? In this case, the answer is still unknown, because of so many individual factors and variables.
Other numbers are more concrete. Seymour averages only 40.1 points per game, scoring has been BNL’s main problem. What is that sum? A low-scoring, grinding battle. Count on that.
BNL (4-8) will seek its first conference triumph when it welcomes Seymour (3-8) to BNL Fieldhouse on Friday night. The Stars currently reside in the league basement, not exactly a place of comfort or envy. The climb up starts now.
During his seven-year tenure in Seymour, which now ranks him as the dean of HHC coaches, Kirk Manns has had only one team average more than 50 points. That’s just not his style. His Owls have counted on offensive disciple and defensive toughness for success. The final total doesn’t matter as much as the greater number on the scoreboard, even if those lights don’t get used a lot. Seymour has reached double digits in wins for five straight years.
“From my point of view, there’s nobody who does more with less individual talent than what Coach Manns does at Seymour,” BNL’s Jackson Ryan said. “I have a tremendous amount of respect for him, what he’s done. That’s a credit to him, a credit to the physicality and discipline those kids play with.”
Here’s where the math gets complicated. BNL dropped league decisions to Columbus East (62-60) and Jennings County (48-37 last week), while the Owls (2-2 in the league) posted wins over the Olympians (57-50 last week) and the Panthers (46-44). However, Seymour has been held to 35 or fewer points four times this season.
”When you compare the teams we’ve played, all of those were single possession, down to the wire,” Ryan said. “This will be a rock fight. We’ve been joking round that the first team to 30 points wins. Our offensive execution is something we’ve been trying to drill home. When points will be at a premium, being able to run our stuff and execute, value every possession to the best of our ability, will be huge. Every detail matters. Seymour will make life so hard for us on the offensive end.“
BNL has been held to 40 or below five times. So where does more offense come from? The Stars have only one scorer (senior Dax Short at 13.7) in double figures. Their shooting percentages need work, because after 12 games those stats don’t lie. BNL’s success relies on quick ball movement to find openings. When it bogs down, it suffers.
”What we’ve broken down, in the games we’ve won or played well, when we’re at our best, who does what?” Ryan said. “In those games, Jace (Nicholson) and Driven (Axsom) are shooting over 50 percent. Gibson Crane is averaging over nine points and six rebounds in those games. Dax isn’t being forced to score, he’s more of a stat-sheet stuffer. My philosophy is doing things by committee, you’re harder to scout and prepare for. If everyone is involved, good things happen.
“We have a great opportunity, on our home court, to beat a solid conference opponent. It’s a very winnable game, but we have to come ready physically to compete and take care of business.”
Seymour won last year’s encounter 56-46, as Brady Harpe scored 18 points and Michael Brooks added 14. Patric Matson paced BNL with 19 points, but the Stars were guilty of 19 turnovers. In the anticipated low-possession clash, that’s a devastating total.
The Owls, much like the Stars, lost most of their production from last year. They now count on senior Nate Fritsch (20 points against East) and Evan Unterseher (17 against East) to lead the way.
SEYMOUR at BNL
When: Friday, 7:30 p.m.
Records: BNL 4-8 (0-2 in HHC); Seymour 3-8 (2-2 in HHC)
Sagarin ratings: BNL 64.83; Seymour 67.70
Series: BNL leads 43-14
Last meeting: Last year at Seymour, the Owls rolled to a 56-46 victory. Brady Harpe had 18 points for Seymour, while Patric Matson totaled 19 points for the Stars. BNL was guilty of 19 turnovers.
Previous game story: Seymour defense locks down Stars
Game notes: Seymour’s Kirk Manns, now in his seventh season with the Owls, is the longest tenured coach in the Hoosier Hills Conference. The Owls have won three of the last four meetings with the Stars.
Starting lineups
Bedford NL Stars
F – Easton Moore 6-2 So.
F – Gibson Crane 6-3 Sr.
G – Dax Short 6-1 Sr.
G – Parker Kern 6-1 Sr.
G – Jace Nicholson 6-0 Jr.
Seymour Owls
F – Gage Hillian 6-2 Jr.
F – Evan Unterseher 6-2 Sr.
C – Lakoda Leavy 6-4 Jr.
G – Carter Stein 5-10 Jr.
G – Nate Fritsch 6-1 Sr.
