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Last updated on Monday, April 23, 2018
(UNDATED) - A new study by The Nature Conservancy has identified a series of landscapes across Indiana that are predicted to withstand the growing impacts of climate change and help ensure nature’s survival.
As droughts, rising temperatures and other climate impacts threaten to destabilize natural areas across the United States and around the world, scientists believe these resilient landscapes will continue to serve as habitat to a wide variety of plants and animals while also providing drinking water, fertile soil and other important natural services that people rely upon.
"This news gives us hope that - with a little help - nature can endure climate change," said Mary McConnell, director of The Nature Conservancy in Indiana. "If we work to keep these special landscapes strong, they will help keep nature strong."
McConnell added: "These strongholds will be critical to all life as the threats of climate change continue to grow. They could serve as breeding grounds and seed banks for many plants and animals that otherwise may be unable to find habitat due to climate change. They could also serve as essential resources for food and water as society deals with the threats of climate change."
The study, conducted over three years, analyzed 336 million acres of land encompassing all of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan, much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri. Parts of two Canadian provinces, Ontario and Manitoba, were also included in the analysis.
Scientists used computerized geographic information systems to analyze 30-meter-square plots, areas about twice the size of a small city lot, across the entire Midwest region that extends from Lake Erie in the east to tallgrass prairies on the western edge of the nation's heartland.
"Protecting the most important sites we've identified and connecting them together is one of our best strategies for ensuring that we continue to have a rich diversity of life in the region and all the benefits that nature provides to us," said Kim Hall, a Conservancy climate change ecologist who worked on the study.
Among the most resilient landscapes found in Indiana were Pokagon State Park in the northern half of the state, Shades and Turkey Run State Parks in the west-central part of the state, and the Conservancy's Kankakee Sands and Prairie Border preserves in northwestern Indiana.
"We've always known that our Kankakee Sands and Prairie Border preserves were special places," said McConnell. "Now we know that these lands can play a critical role in keeping nature across Indiana and beyond strong and healthy in the face of climate change."
Other resilient landscapes identified by the study were Great Lakes islands and shoreline, northern forests, karst areas spared by glaciers, prairie and wetland complexes and flat to gently rolling hills with steep bluffs bordering the Mississippi, Missouri and Illinois river valleys. Only 8 percent of the land in the region is protected, while 60 percent has been converted to farmland or development.
The study also looked at the "permeability" of landscapes - whether roads, dams, development or other fragmenting features have created barriers that prevent plants and animals from moving into new neighborhoods. Together, that collection of diverse environmental settings and ability for local movement define a landscape's resiliency.
Later this year, the Conservancy will identify important corridors that link these resilient landscapes together. Government agencies and nonprofit groups are expected to use the resulting maps to guide their conservation efforts.
"It's not enough to have isolated islands of these climate-resilient sites," said Meredith Cornett, a Conservancy scientist who helped author the study. "We have to ensure that corridors connect them together. To survive the changing climate, some species will be able to relocate within their current environment. Others will need to move great distances to entirely new places. Just as people use roads to move from town to town, we need to make sure species have a way to move from one landscape to another."
But Cornett added: "Unfortunately, many species won't be able to relocate as climate change makes their neighborhoods unlivable. So, the ultimate goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stop climate change impacts from worsening. Until that happens, these resilient landscapes offer a much-needed safe harbor for the survival of many species and natural systems."
Scientists for The Nature Conservancy are now conducting similar studies across the Great Plains to identify other natural strongholds that have the potential to support a diversity of plants and animals as the climate changes. The Conservancy has already completed its analysis of the Eastern U.S and the Pacific Northwest and has plans to complete a "wall-to-wall" map for the contiguous United States within a few years.
Mark Anderson, a Conservancy scientist who has helped lead the natural strongholds studies, said the study's findings should be used in combination with more detailed data and field validation. "This analysis doesn't make decisions, instead, it provides estimates of resilience that should be integrated and interpreted with additional data to inform conservation decisions."
The study of the Great Lakes and Tallgrass Prairie region in the Midwest was funded primarily through a grant from the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation with additional funding provided by Nature Conservancy supporters.
For an overview and additional information about the study, including a link to download the study, data and a mapping tool, go to nature.org/midweststrongholds.
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