Reverse Coattial Effect For Politicians

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(STATEHOUSE) - Analysts in both parties have been speculating a “reverse coattail” effect could lift Democrats to control of the Indiana and U.S. House.

But a veteran IUPUI pollster warns it's too early to predict a takeover. Democrats have sought to make the campaign for the Indiana House a referendum on Gov. Daniels. But Daniels' numbers have bounced back from a spring low to about 50-50.

Even so, IUPUI's Brian Vargus says pockets of the state are strongly against him because of the toll road lease and daylight saving time. President Bush's numbers have rebounded less, and Vargus says 8th District Congressman John Hostettler's campaign in particular could hinge on the national trend.

But he says Democrats' strength in Indiana and nationally is soft enough to be turned by events, and says the approaching anniversary of 9/11 plays to Republican strengths. Democrats need to gain three seats to take the Indiana House, 15 seats for the U.S. House. The U.S. and State Senate are generally considered out of reach.

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