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IU Kelley Economic Forecast: It Could Be 1980 Again

Last updated on Friday, November 7, 2008

(INDIANAPOLIS) - Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business has released their economic forecast for next year and it’s not so hot.

The press releases headline reads, "IU economists hope nation and Indiana can escape 2009 with only a moderate recession," which, to them, means a recession no worse than the ones we muddled through in 1990 and in 2001.

That's what they hope.

Frankly, the numbers they present in their forecast don't look so hot. Kelley professors believe the possibility for an early-1980s style recession is still there, as they forecast a 1% decline in gross domestic product in the first half of 2009 before growing some in the second half.

2 million Americans may also find pink slips in their inboxes between the beginning of this year and the end of the recession, which could put national unemployment around 7.4% if not higher.

The full report is scheduled to be released in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, and in December, and can be read at www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr.

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